Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
