Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a coup, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".