A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
